A tale of two nations: why the Scottish nationalists outperformed Plaid Cymru
Originally published on by Dr Mari Wiliam, Lecturer in Modern and Welsh History and Dr Andrew Edwards, Dean of Arts and Humanities and Senior Lecturer in Modern History. Read the .
Imagine the post-apocalyptic scenario, where the Welsh rugby team is thrashed 56-3 by Scotland. Amidst the doomsday spectre of an empty Millennium Stadium would be calls for the coach to be sacked, the team dismantled and the tactics radically overhauled.
Now, substitute this vision for the recent performance of Plaid Cymru in the 2015 general election. Merely holding on to its three MPs in the Welsh language heartlands looks paltry in comparison to the bounty of 56 seats, enjoyed by the SNP. And Plaid鈥檚 12.1% of the Welsh vote was dwarfed by the SNP鈥檚 50% of the Scottish vote share. Consequently, while the SNP are by some distance the largest party in Scotland, Plaid remain in fourth place in Wales behind Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP, apparently unable to exploit numerous opportunities presented to it, namely:
The positive momentum generated by the SNP鈥檚 popularity in the wake of the Independence referendum.
The capitulation of the Liberal Democrats.
The lethargy of Labour鈥檚 campaign and the Miliband 鈥淢armite鈥� factor.
The unprecedented exposure enjoyed by Leanne Wood in the leaders鈥� debates.
Unlike some of her counterparts, Leanne Wood has not found herself on the leaders鈥� scrapheap. In fact, examinations of Plaid鈥檚 performance have praised her conduct. One Plaid AM has gone as far as to suggest that she now has 鈥渉uge鈥� potential to be seen as an alternative First Minister of Wales. The successful Borgen-isation of Wood鈥檚 image, the conviction of her Voice of Wales campaign and the alliance with the SNP鈥檚 Nicola Sturgeon suggest a revitalised Plaid Cymru brand. Various polls suggested Wood was the most-liked Welsh politician and also the one that 鈥渂est stands up for the people of Wales鈥�.
And yet, it is clear that Wood鈥檚 popularity did not translate into a deluge of votes. In fact, her prominence 鈥� combined with the buoyancy of 鈥渃ybernats鈥� on social media 鈥� may well have provided an over-inflated estimation of Plaid鈥檚 chances. The reality is that holding on to its three existing seats, and coming within 229 votes of capturing one of its target seats in Ynys M么n, was far from disastrous.
Is it a fair fight?
Traditionally, neither the SNP nor Plaid have performed spectacularly well in Westminster elections, but as professor Laura McAllister has suggested, the parties are not 鈥渢wo sides of the same coin鈥�. Although both now share similar aspirations towards independence and progressive left-of-centre policies, the respective identities of Scotland and Wales have, historically, been very different. The fact that Plaid hasn鈥檛 been swept upwards by the SNP whirlwind isn鈥檛 really so surprising after all.
To begin with, Scotland鈥檚 union with England was achieved on a more equal footing than the 16th century Acts of Union that 鈥渋ncorporated鈥� Wales. And Scotland retained many significant aspects of statehood, such as Scots Law and a separate education system. This enabled it to pull far ahead of Wales in terms of administrative devolution: Wales got its first Secretary of State in 1964; the Scottish equivalent had been established in the 19th century.
This provided the Scots with a broader sense of civic identity, which, combined with the 1970s narrative of 鈥淪cotland鈥檚 oil鈥�, saw the Welsh playing a game of constitutional catch-up. Unsurprisingly, in both the 1979 and 1997 referenda, devolution proved far more appealing to Scottish voters than it did to those in Wales.
A language game
From its incipient years in the 1930s, the SNP was driven more by constitutional reform than a desire to reinforce Scottish cultural distinctiveness. By contrast, the purpose of Plaid Cymru stems from a fear of language decline that often alienated it from the majority non-Welsh speaking population, and led to unsubstantiated allegations that it was 鈥渇ascist鈥�.
In her memoirs, the SNP鈥檚 Winnie Ewing recalls telling Plaid Cymru鈥檚 leader Gwynfor Evans that she was envious of the 鈥渓inguistic heritage鈥� of Wales. She was rather surprised by his response that, unlike Wales, support for the SNP could come from anywhere as 鈥渁n inbuilt patriotic response which was not dependent on language.鈥�
What鈥檚 more, British and English-centric values have retained a firmer grip on Wales. The recent election witnessed drastic contrasts in the UKIP poll, with the party gaining 13.6% of the vote in Wales, but only scraping 1.6% in Scotland. And while both Labour and the Conservatives have seemingly failed to adjust to devolution north of the border 鈥� allowing the SNP to mop up the populist protest vote 鈥� both parties have successfully promoted and cultivated their 鈥淲elsh鈥� credentials.
The question now is, where next for Plaid? While the success of UKIP suggests 鈥� at least in part 鈥� Plaid鈥檚 failure to attract Labour鈥檚 disillusioned working-class vote, there are also fears among some of its supporters that it has abandoned the centre-ground to the resurgent Conservatives. As the Welsh Assembly has acquired further powers, support for Welsh independence has also dwindled: 6% according to the latest St David鈥檚 Day Poll, but as low as 3% in the aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum.
With Leanne Wood 鈥� a socialist from the Rhondda 鈥� at its helm, the 2016 assembly elections will be the ultimate barometer of Plaid鈥檚 ability to transcend its historical image as a factional language pressure group. If Plaid fails to make a strong showing, it will be testament to its failure to emulate the SNP鈥檚 broad-church appeal. But, it will also highlight that Welsh dragons and Scottish lions are very far from being the same species.
Publication date: 19 May 2015