Brexit uncertainty boosts support for Welsh independence from the UK
This article by , Lecturer in Law, was originally published on under a Creative Commons Licence. Read the .
In a move that surprised many, in June 2016, 52.5% of people in Wales the European Union. But , and 鈥溾�� have mounted since then, and recent polls suggest that support for remain has in Wales.
Now, the Welsh government has announced that it will while public attention is turning to the question of whether the Welsh should become independent from a post-Brexit UK.
Welsh independence supported by , but it now appears to be , with more Welsh citizens now of leaving the union. across the country and recent YouGov polls indicate that support for independence, or at least 鈥溾�� has grown in Wales in the past two years.
If it were to become independent, Wales wouldn鈥檛 have to start from scratch. It has had a devolved and parliament (the or 鈥溾��) for .
At present these bodies do not have control over all . They defence and national security, foreign policy, and immigration, for example. But the Assembly does have responsibility for policy and passing laws for the benefit of the people of Wales, and has been doing so for the .
Wales, alone
Strictly speaking, constitutional law dictates that Wales cannot run its own referendum nor declare independence unilaterally. The new to the Government of Wales Act 2006 states that 鈥溾�� is a reserved matter, not for the Assembly. But precedent suggests that an independence referendum is not an impossibility.
If there is Wales to decide its own future, this would put pressure on the UK government to facilitate a legal solution for a referendum. This opportunity the former Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, by former prime minister David Cameron, via the .
While not all are in favour of Welsh independence, the political narrative is changing. Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford has stated that 鈥溾�� and that 鈥溾��.
Concerned by relationships between the UK鈥檚 countries, former prime minister Theresa May referred to the electoral success of nationalist parties such as as evidence that the union is 鈥溾��. She also sanctioned the , with a remit to address 鈥溾��.
Her comments echo warnings from former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown, who that UK unity is 鈥渕ore at risk than at any time in 300 years 鈥� and more in danger than when we had to fight for it in 2014 during a bitter Scottish referendum鈥�.
The Senedd
So if Wales overcame the legal challenges and gained national political support, would the devolved government and parliament be able to manage the country? As noted above the National Assembly has been making laws for Wales since 1999. Frequently cited achievements include the and (via a mix of ). In addition the changed how peoples鈥� needs are assessed and services delivered.
Wales was also among the first to introduce , , and the 鈥� with further bans in school playgrounds and outside hospitals .
More recently its was celebrated for compelling public bodies to think about the long-term impact of their decisions on communities and the environment 鈥� albeit with some criticisms from legal experts for being 鈥溾�� in terms of enforceability.
Alongside these headline-grabbing results, the itself has been an achievement in its own right. While its initial establishment was something of a battle 鈥� in and voted for it 鈥� actually extended the scope of the Assembly鈥檚 powers.
This changed its constitutional structure from a model (which limited it to specifically listed areas) to a , which empowers the Assembly to produce a multitude of on all matters that are not reserved to the UK parliament.
But even with its strong history, it must be noted that not everyone is in favour of the Assembly. A small number of UKIP assembly members are currently arguing while others 鈥� particularly in the areas of schooling and the NHS.
Independence challenges
The are several other dimensions to the question of whether Wales could become an independent state. Socially and economically, opponents advocate that Wales is to stand alone on the world stage. , a non-partisan pro-independence campaign group, has sought , pointing out that there are 18 countries in Europe smaller than Wales, and that the assessment of Wales鈥� fiscal deficit is flawed in excluding significant assets such as water and electricity.
The constitutional shift in power that will follow Brexit will certainly give rise to the prospects of a . But the outcome of Brexit, and its impact on Welsh independence, hinges on the new prime minister鈥檚 actions.
While Boris Johnson has reiterated that the 鈥溾��, if there is significant public support for independence in Wales, it will be hard for Johnson to ignore the people鈥檚 and arbitrarily enforce the union at all costs. Should the independence movement gain further wide support in the coming months compromises will have to be reached, with at least more being likely in the medium term.
Ultimately, while it would be a monumental change, the question of whether Wales becomes independent hinges on what the people want for their country. If successive UK governments take the union for granted without more meaningful consideration to the , calls for independence may become louder.
Publication date: 31 July 2019